Abraham Yousef · October 2022
3Q Retail Trends Suggest Holiday Weakness
Slowing growth in active users at Walmart, Target, and Amazon could pose a risk for holiday sales, as these are the top retailers for holiday spending. Consumer confidence is also sliding, and September U.S. retail sales were flat, missing expectations. Amazon's October Prime Day event may also see muted results, as slowing day-over-day gains in active users and downloads suggest weaker engagement compared to past Prime Days. Despite increased deals and promotions, consumer engagement is slowing, with average session count and time spent per user down from pandemic highs.
Key Takeaways:
Decelerating growth in active users at at Walmart, Target and Amazon indicates a risk for holiday sales, given these are the three top retailers for holiday spending
Consumers are already showing signs of weakness, with consumer confidence sliding and a 20% drop in ocean freight orders, per a CNBC report
September U.S. Retail Sales were flat from the prior month, missing expectations of a 20bps gain
Slowing day-over-day gains in active users and downloads suggest muted results for Amazon’s October Prime Day event versus past Prime Days
U.S. DAUs on the first day of the July 2022 Amazon Prime event rose 20% from the prior day, but only 11% in October 2022; this is significantly weaker than in October 2020 and June 2021, when U.S. DAUs rose 31% and 27% DoD, respectively
Despite increased deals and promotions, consumer engagement is slowing with average session count and average time spent per user in the U.S. both down from pandemic highs and mid-July 2022 peaks compared to Sept. 2022, according to Sensor Tower Consumer Intelligence estimates
For more information, request the full report from reports@sensortower.com.
